Short Silver : Target below 16.85

Silver is looking so bearish to me...

Target is below 16.85

Change or No Change :: US Key Interest Rates

Tonight is another such night where everyone is assuming that where FED Chairman, Ben Bernanke , come out of meeting and shout “No Change” but I have this gut feeling that tonight could be the night where they pull up their socks… err I mean their Interest Rates

 

Let’s see another 4 hours to go for the Interest Rates Decision and then Consumer Confidence number after 1 Hour of Interest Rates Decision

My prediction: They Hike their rates… Gold/Silver should be dumped along with all currency pairs and USD should rally. US Equities should make a double top here and go back below their 50% retracement levels by this Thursday 18th.

Big expectations.. lets see how it goes.

 

US Numbers evening…

Another important evening with respect to US Data in another 1 hour

 

	Previous	Expectations
Trade Balance	-40.20B	-41.00B
Initial Jobless Claims	469.00K	455.00K
Natural Gas Storage	-116.00B

 

Looking at various charts USD, US 10Y Bond, Gold, Silver, Dow, S&P... I am predicting & expecting numbers to leave negative sentiment atleast to start with. Lets see how numbers are...

 

Update… Numbers were bad not not too bad… still here is what happened

USD Down
Bond Rally
Gold rebound
Silver rebound
Dow , S&P Down

Gold & Silver are the biggest stars

Expecting better than expectations – US NFP Numbers

Current waves in DJI, SPX and even in NASDAQ suggest atleast 5-6% cut from the highs.
DOW & JONES

Upside Target: 10635, Downside Target: 10040

 

S&P 500

Upside Target: 1138, Downside Target: 1075

NASDAQ

Upside Target: 2318 , Downside Target: 2200

 

Nifty : Upside Target: 5190 , Downside Target: 4835

Hey yaa everyone…

I have been busy lately with my personal life and was not trading actively. I wont be trading quite as active for some more time but will be tracking the market when I get some time.

I have been following Gold quite closely and it may be possibly done with the rally and looking for a pull back… maybe a 100% pull back to make a double bottom.

This is the weekly chart setup and if we consider the lower line as target then see how perfect was the target… the estimated price at arrival should not exceed more than 1145 and yesterday it made a high of 1145.18 ( I was expecting a 10% rally from the lows and that is almost over 9.65%)

Now look at this Daily chart and why I see pain in Long Gold situation…

 

I see it max making an attempt to touch 1155 and then a possible double bottom… argh.. that’s gonna hurt and I already booked my longs and added few shorts at 1143.. I would be a ruthless bear on a breach of 1130

 

Now let’s look at the S&P 500 Index and see it is also making a bearish wave pattern… although the volume was not great in last two days which is very much needed .. maybe they want to make a final attempt to go short near 1140 levels.

Similar pattern in Nasdaq Composite… be cautious and atleast book profit on longs or hedge your positions.

 

 

Trade Update: What happened to Gold, USD, & S&P 500

Today was another green day for US as the indices closed around 0.5% in green. Gold had a good run in the morning but later gave up most of the gains, not only for today but half the gains of yesterday which is expected as it broke out of the channel.

Let the pictures do talking, here is a chart of Gold… remember I have been suggesting it since $1050 levels.

Now there could be two stops… one stop could be at the pink line which does not appear to be the case if we look at the volume and if we are able to break past the pink line then it should inch toward the blue line and make a new all time high in Gold.

Ok, so what about USD… it is playing hide n seek with the ‘sweet zone’ and today once again went back in sweet zone to close near $80.5… which is good for bears to short again or add more shorts. Unless we see a close above 80.85 which was the last high, the momentum remains in the hands of bears.

 

Ohk.. lets look at S&P 500 chart and why this dead cat was bouncing.. yes it is a dead cat and no surprise if we see a gap down tomorrow in S&P 500. Look how it made a bullish wave which completed its target today… next is what? Possible 100% pullback of this rally and go below 1040.

I am keeping my call to stay short and add more shorts in Nifty, S&P, Dow and USD.. while stay long in Gold… we should further see a good rally in Gold.

 

Trade Update… US Down 1.5%

Related Blogs:
http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/gains-only-gains-in-4800ce.html
http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/warning-danger-ahead.html
http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/us-market-is-looking-for-another-3-4.html
I warned you in the last India session , while we were still open to book 100% out of 4800CE and buy 4700PE.. I also suggested that US markets are going for a 3% cut first and then even further…
Watch us markets where they opened…


Hope you picked the 4700PE… as Nifty is going below 4500 this time… you going to get lots of Dhanvarsha… enjoy!!!

Why did US markets pull back at close?

Everything was going as planned and US was down all the way to 2.5% most of the session but last 1 hour was interesting which pulled the markets back in green.

Here is what happen in the last 1 hour of the market.. it made a bullish wave in 15min chart

 

Now this could be a good move for Indian markets to make a possible Bull Trap. I am expecting Indian Markets to rally in a Special Session tomorrow between 10am-11:30am

Yes NSE & BSE both will be open on Saturday for 1.30 hours.. may be for operators? Whatever it may be.. I would buy at the money puts… looking at the way US market came back we might see 4750-4775 level where I will buy 4700PE and hold them for Monday

 

-Member Dhanvarsha Group

When is this correction going to end… maybe within February

 

Look at this interesting chart of two totally different countries India & US… they both have a wave pattern and both are looking for completing the wave on the exact same date which happen to be 23rd February. So I expect this correction to complete by the end of February but expect some very ruthless shorting to complete the overall correction.

 

I would continue to ride shorts unless market touch down to those target lines… falling down.

I have my positional Nifty & DOW short call running from levels of 5275 & 10680 respectively..

 

-Member Dhanvarsha Group