Change or No Change :: US Key Interest Rates

Tonight is another such night where everyone is assuming that where FED Chairman, Ben Bernanke , come out of meeting and shout “No Change” but I have this gut feeling that tonight could be the night where they pull up their socks… err I mean their Interest Rates

 

Let’s see another 4 hours to go for the Interest Rates Decision and then Consumer Confidence number after 1 Hour of Interest Rates Decision

My prediction: They Hike their rates… Gold/Silver should be dumped along with all currency pairs and USD should rally. US Equities should make a double top here and go back below their 50% retracement levels by this Thursday 18th.

Big expectations.. lets see how it goes.

 

US Numbers evening…

Another important evening with respect to US Data in another 1 hour

 

	Previous	Expectations
Trade Balance	-40.20B	-41.00B
Initial Jobless Claims	469.00K	455.00K
Natural Gas Storage	-116.00B

 

Looking at various charts USD, US 10Y Bond, Gold, Silver, Dow, S&P... I am predicting & expecting numbers to leave negative sentiment atleast to start with. Lets see how numbers are...

 

Update… Numbers were bad not not too bad… still here is what happened

USD Down
Bond Rally
Gold rebound
Silver rebound
Dow , S&P Down

Gold & Silver are the biggest stars

Hey yaa everyone…

I have been busy lately with my personal life and was not trading actively. I wont be trading quite as active for some more time but will be tracking the market when I get some time.

I have been following Gold quite closely and it may be possibly done with the rally and looking for a pull back… maybe a 100% pull back to make a double bottom.

This is the weekly chart setup and if we consider the lower line as target then see how perfect was the target… the estimated price at arrival should not exceed more than 1145 and yesterday it made a high of 1145.18 ( I was expecting a 10% rally from the lows and that is almost over 9.65%)

Now look at this Daily chart and why I see pain in Long Gold situation…

 

I see it max making an attempt to touch 1155 and then a possible double bottom… argh.. that’s gonna hurt and I already booked my longs and added few shorts at 1143.. I would be a ruthless bear on a breach of 1130

 

Now let’s look at the S&P 500 Index and see it is also making a bearish wave pattern… although the volume was not great in last two days which is very much needed .. maybe they want to make a final attempt to go short near 1140 levels.

Similar pattern in Nasdaq Composite… be cautious and atleast book profit on longs or hedge your positions.

 

 

Trade Update: What happened to Gold, USD, & S&P 500

Today was another green day for US as the indices closed around 0.5% in green. Gold had a good run in the morning but later gave up most of the gains, not only for today but half the gains of yesterday which is expected as it broke out of the channel.

Let the pictures do talking, here is a chart of Gold… remember I have been suggesting it since $1050 levels.

Now there could be two stops… one stop could be at the pink line which does not appear to be the case if we look at the volume and if we are able to break past the pink line then it should inch toward the blue line and make a new all time high in Gold.

Ok, so what about USD… it is playing hide n seek with the ‘sweet zone’ and today once again went back in sweet zone to close near $80.5… which is good for bears to short again or add more shorts. Unless we see a close above 80.85 which was the last high, the momentum remains in the hands of bears.

 

Ohk.. lets look at S&P 500 chart and why this dead cat was bouncing.. yes it is a dead cat and no surprise if we see a gap down tomorrow in S&P 500. Look how it made a bullish wave which completed its target today… next is what? Possible 100% pullback of this rally and go below 1040.

I am keeping my call to stay short and add more shorts in Nifty, S&P, Dow and USD.. while stay long in Gold… we should further see a good rally in Gold.

 

A Golden Penny…. golden gains!!!

Penny stocks could be of great return if executed properly. Here is the update on my prediction just 4 days back
http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/lets-look-at-gold-once-again-and-see.html
and here are the returns.. I suggest to book 50% profit and keep rest with a SL @ cost

Gold Rush!!!!

Related Posts:
http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/us-non-farm-payroll-number-prediction.html
http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/these-are-golden-moments.html
http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/trade-update-gold-vs-dollar-which-is.html

I have been suggested “GO GOLD…. GO GOLD” and its keep on riding my predictions… hope you are having fun and great profits as well… This is called Dhanvarsha.. Jai Maha Laxmi :-)
Let’s see how gold looks like today… and I suggested                                                                                                    

Trade Update – Gold vs Dollar , which is better?

 

Related Posts:

http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/us-non-farm-payroll-number-prediction.html

http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/these-are-golden-moments.html

On 5th February just half an hour before the US Non Farm Payroll numbers were out, I predicted that USD is going to correct and Gold is looking for a rally. Today is 9th Feb and lets see how Gold vs Dollar & USD Index Futures looks like on the chart

Gold vs Dollar – Suggested a BUY @ 1050, LTP : 1078

USD Index Futures

Suggested to short near $80.75 and last trade price is $80

Lets look at the gold once again and see what its saying

Now if you do not want to play directly in the Gold then there are other options available… penny stocks :-)

Here are my favorite picks and stocks that are impacted directly by Gold Price

Flawless Diamonds India Ltd.  - BSE Code: 523576 , Last Price: 3.17

Rajesh Exports – BSE Code: 531500 , Last Price: 101.10

Vaibhav Gems Ltd – BSE Code: 532156 , Last Price: 31.05

Golkunda Diamonds and Jewellery Ltd – BSE Code: 523676 , Last Price: 16.85

Out of these 4 stocks, Rajesh & Flawless were down 4% & 1% today while Vaibhav & Golkunda both were up 5% and there were no sellers available in them.

These are the “Golden Moments”

Gold has been beaten down hard and I see a potential up move in the Gold. This will support my take that USD is looking for some correction. I am looking for a 10% upside in the Gold from current levels and similar move can be expected in NSE Traded Gold ETF ( GOLDBEES )

Buy @ 1605

Stop @ 1575

Target @ 1750

Chart

GOLDBEES

 

 

-Member Dhanvarsha Group