Change or No Change :: US Key Interest Rates

Tonight is another such night where everyone is assuming that where FED Chairman, Ben Bernanke , come out of meeting and shout “No Change” but I have this gut feeling that tonight could be the night where they pull up their socks… err I mean their Interest Rates

 

Let’s see another 4 hours to go for the Interest Rates Decision and then Consumer Confidence number after 1 Hour of Interest Rates Decision

My prediction: They Hike their rates… Gold/Silver should be dumped along with all currency pairs and USD should rally. US Equities should make a double top here and go back below their 50% retracement levels by this Thursday 18th.

Big expectations.. lets see how it goes.

 

Trade Update… Nifty Short

Friday at 1:45pm I suggested to short Nifty when it was trading near 5140… this was the call

Sell NIFTY Target 5110-5108

http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/03/sell-nifty-target-5110-5108.html

..and see the today’s low… 5105.50 and a strong bounce back… did it go down further?

So now what? Short again on a break of 5125 if it trade below 5110 for 5-10mins and look for 5096-5090-5040 within couple of days.. max by this Thursday.

US Numbers evening…

Another important evening with respect to US Data in another 1 hour

 

	Previous	Expectations
Trade Balance	-40.20B	-41.00B
Initial Jobless Claims	469.00K	455.00K
Natural Gas Storage	-116.00B

 

Looking at various charts USD, US 10Y Bond, Gold, Silver, Dow, S&P... I am predicting & expecting numbers to leave negative sentiment atleast to start with. Lets see how numbers are...

 

Update… Numbers were bad not not too bad… still here is what happened

USD Down
Bond Rally
Gold rebound
Silver rebound
Dow , S&P Down

Gold & Silver are the biggest stars

Back to Back 2 Waves on a Nifty 15min chart today… gave over 40 points

Nifty 15min chart and it gave over 40 points. The setup was WolfeWave and two perfect waves traded.

Nifty Future’s Days High / Lows

High: 5124.70 / Low: 5097.10

Suggestion was Buy @ 5098 – Target 5125… liked the perfection?

See the recommendation here..

http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/03/nifty-intraday-go-long-at-5098-5095.html

Nifty’s Prediction for Next 3 Months

Since everyone is talking about bearish levels so I would start this with a bullish tone for a change.

Nifty is going to touch 5450 by 27th May 2010

but first 4650-4700 within by April first week then 5475-5500 by last week of May or first week of June

Watch Video for more detail…

 

Trade Update: Nifty 5100PE

 

CMP is 107… that is 30% + gains in less than 3 hours.. suggested to buy @ 85 here

http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/03/buy-nifty-5100pe-cmp-85-target-4990-in.html

Hold them tight for a target below 5000 in SPOT or book atleast 50%

Buy Nifty 5100PE , CMP: 85 , Target 4990 in Spot, Stop Loss: 5210 in Spot

 

Buy Nifty 5100PE , CMP: 85 , Target 4990 in Spot, Stop Loss: 5210 in Spot

Or atleast hedge your Nifty Longs by adding Nifty Puts.

Expecting better than expectations – US NFP Numbers

Current waves in DJI, SPX and even in NASDAQ suggest atleast 5-6% cut from the highs.
DOW & JONES

Upside Target: 10635, Downside Target: 10040

 

S&P 500

Upside Target: 1138, Downside Target: 1075

NASDAQ

Upside Target: 2318 , Downside Target: 2200

 

Nifty : Upside Target: 5190 , Downside Target: 4835

Hey yaa everyone…

I have been busy lately with my personal life and was not trading actively. I wont be trading quite as active for some more time but will be tracking the market when I get some time.

I have been following Gold quite closely and it may be possibly done with the rally and looking for a pull back… maybe a 100% pull back to make a double bottom.

This is the weekly chart setup and if we consider the lower line as target then see how perfect was the target… the estimated price at arrival should not exceed more than 1145 and yesterday it made a high of 1145.18 ( I was expecting a 10% rally from the lows and that is almost over 9.65%)

Now look at this Daily chart and why I see pain in Long Gold situation…

 

I see it max making an attempt to touch 1155 and then a possible double bottom… argh.. that’s gonna hurt and I already booked my longs and added few shorts at 1143.. I would be a ruthless bear on a breach of 1130

 

Now let’s look at the S&P 500 Index and see it is also making a bearish wave pattern… although the volume was not great in last two days which is very much needed .. maybe they want to make a final attempt to go short near 1140 levels.

Similar pattern in Nasdaq Composite… be cautious and atleast book profit on longs or hedge your positions.

 

 

Nifty Target Hit !!!

Two days back on 15th Feb.. I gave a call to go long in Nifty if 4770 hold and target was 4922, above 4930 I was expecting 5100-5200 range.
See where Nifty ended yesterday 4929.70 , this is called accuracy :)
Related Posts: http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/nifty-future-positional-call.html

Trade Update: What happened to Gold, USD, & S&P 500

Today was another green day for US as the indices closed around 0.5% in green. Gold had a good run in the morning but later gave up most of the gains, not only for today but half the gains of yesterday which is expected as it broke out of the channel.

Let the pictures do talking, here is a chart of Gold… remember I have been suggesting it since $1050 levels.

Now there could be two stops… one stop could be at the pink line which does not appear to be the case if we look at the volume and if we are able to break past the pink line then it should inch toward the blue line and make a new all time high in Gold.

Ok, so what about USD… it is playing hide n seek with the ‘sweet zone’ and today once again went back in sweet zone to close near $80.5… which is good for bears to short again or add more shorts. Unless we see a close above 80.85 which was the last high, the momentum remains in the hands of bears.

 

Ohk.. lets look at S&P 500 chart and why this dead cat was bouncing.. yes it is a dead cat and no surprise if we see a gap down tomorrow in S&P 500. Look how it made a bullish wave which completed its target today… next is what? Possible 100% pullback of this rally and go below 1040.

I am keeping my call to stay short and add more shorts in Nifty, S&P, Dow and USD.. while stay long in Gold… we should further see a good rally in Gold.

 

Buy 4800PE @ 34 and look for a target of 4770-4780 by tomorrow in Nifty

Buy 4800PE @ 34 (LTP) and target is around 70-90 by tomorrow or till Friday

Nifty Future… Positional Call

 

Sell Nifty FUT for a target of 4780 intraday , If 4770-4765 holds, then I am expecting a bounce to 4922 above 4930 expect 5100-5200 range... that makes it positional as well

 

Trade Update… US Down 1.5%

Related Blogs:
http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/gains-only-gains-in-4800ce.html
http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/warning-danger-ahead.html
http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/us-market-is-looking-for-another-3-4.html
I warned you in the last India session , while we were still open to book 100% out of 4800CE and buy 4700PE.. I also suggested that US markets are going for a 3% cut first and then even further…
Watch us markets where they opened…


Hope you picked the 4700PE… as Nifty is going below 4500 this time… you going to get lots of Dhanvarsha… enjoy!!!

US market is looking for another 3-4% correction.. may be on Friday

Here is my prediction… that we might see another 3-4% cut in both DOW JONES as well as S&P 500 Index
Next week should be a good one for bears.. watch out you bulls.

Warning… Danger ahead!!!!

Do not be over optimistic about the recovery that we seen today. Nifty is possibly headed towards below 4500 mark very soon… use this as caution and pick some 4500PE for the month of February

Gains & Only Gains… in 4800CE

Suggested yesterday
http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/why-did-indian-markets-fall-today.html
book 75% profit and ride rest with a SL @ price… ie. 84

Update: Day’s high 118… target was 110-120… see the accuracy… enjoy!!!

I would recommend to book out 100% and buy some amount of 4700PE.. we sould break below 4600 this time.

Why did Indian Markets fall today?

Entire world markets were trading higher, US closed near 2% in gains and even UK opened and stayed in green but Indian Markets fall like a stone… why? The answer is all behind the waves…
After completing its target I am expecting at least 50% pullback to 4785, while in SPOT Nifty it is making a pattern which is suggesting a pullback all the way till 4840-4850 in the SPOT Nifty
I had given a call to Buy 4800CE @ 82-84 , Stop @ 75 and Target above 110 – 120 in coming days.
See the call here : http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/update_6718.html

Trade Update – Gold vs Dollar , which is better?

 

Related Posts:

http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/us-non-farm-payroll-number-prediction.html

http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/these-are-golden-moments.html

On 5th February just half an hour before the US Non Farm Payroll numbers were out, I predicted that USD is going to correct and Gold is looking for a rally. Today is 9th Feb and lets see how Gold vs Dollar & USD Index Futures looks like on the chart

Gold vs Dollar – Suggested a BUY @ 1050, LTP : 1078

USD Index Futures

Suggested to short near $80.75 and last trade price is $80