Change or No Change :: US Key Interest Rates

Tonight is another such night where everyone is assuming that where FED Chairman, Ben Bernanke , come out of meeting and shout “No Change” but I have this gut feeling that tonight could be the night where they pull up their socks… err I mean their Interest Rates

 

Let’s see another 4 hours to go for the Interest Rates Decision and then Consumer Confidence number after 1 Hour of Interest Rates Decision

My prediction: They Hike their rates… Gold/Silver should be dumped along with all currency pairs and USD should rally. US Equities should make a double top here and go back below their 50% retracement levels by this Thursday 18th.

Big expectations.. lets see how it goes.

 

US Numbers evening…

Another important evening with respect to US Data in another 1 hour

 

	Previous	Expectations
Trade Balance	-40.20B	-41.00B
Initial Jobless Claims	469.00K	455.00K
Natural Gas Storage	-116.00B

 

Looking at various charts USD, US 10Y Bond, Gold, Silver, Dow, S&P... I am predicting & expecting numbers to leave negative sentiment atleast to start with. Lets see how numbers are...

 

Update… Numbers were bad not not too bad… still here is what happened

USD Down
Bond Rally
Gold rebound
Silver rebound
Dow , S&P Down

Gold & Silver are the biggest stars

Expecting better than expectations – US NFP Numbers

Current waves in DJI, SPX and even in NASDAQ suggest atleast 5-6% cut from the highs.
DOW & JONES

Upside Target: 10635, Downside Target: 10040

 

S&P 500

Upside Target: 1138, Downside Target: 1075

NASDAQ

Upside Target: 2318 , Downside Target: 2200

 

Nifty : Upside Target: 5190 , Downside Target: 4835

Hey yaa everyone…

I have been busy lately with my personal life and was not trading actively. I wont be trading quite as active for some more time but will be tracking the market when I get some time.

I have been following Gold quite closely and it may be possibly done with the rally and looking for a pull back… maybe a 100% pull back to make a double bottom.

This is the weekly chart setup and if we consider the lower line as target then see how perfect was the target… the estimated price at arrival should not exceed more than 1145 and yesterday it made a high of 1145.18 ( I was expecting a 10% rally from the lows and that is almost over 9.65%)

Now look at this Daily chart and why I see pain in Long Gold situation…

 

I see it max making an attempt to touch 1155 and then a possible double bottom… argh.. that’s gonna hurt and I already booked my longs and added few shorts at 1143.. I would be a ruthless bear on a breach of 1130

 

Now let’s look at the S&P 500 Index and see it is also making a bearish wave pattern… although the volume was not great in last two days which is very much needed .. maybe they want to make a final attempt to go short near 1140 levels.

Similar pattern in Nasdaq Composite… be cautious and atleast book profit on longs or hedge your positions.